Africa's population is already five times what it was in the 1950s and is expected to continue rising (see graph below). It is predicted that the population will rise to 2.4 billion by 2050 and reach 4.2 billion by 2100. Despite a slowing growth rate in the continent more than half of the rise in world population between 2015 to 2050 (2.2 billion) will occur in Africa (UNICEF, 2014). This, along with an increasing population density will put more pressure on water resources and may lead to problems with supplying enough water to meet demand particularly in areas where water sources are shared with different stakeholders.
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| Predicted Population Projections in Africa (source:UN DESA)
This factsheet produced by UNEP provides a nice summary on the expected outcomes of climate change in Africa.
Rises in temperature are expected to be higher in Africa than globally and the average temperature is projected to rise 1.5-3°C by 2050. Warming will also lead to a sea-level rise which could increase flooding in Eastern Africa and will put Africa's 320 coastal cities at risk. There will be changes in annual and seasonal precipitation and an increase in extreme events (flooding and droughts). There is also great variability within the continent which could put nations in Africa under more pressure compared to other countries. Rainfall is expected to decrease in most parts of Africa but it is predicted that mean annual rainfall will increase in East Africa. Droughts will become more common in the tropics and subtropics and arid and semi-arid areas in Africa are expected to rise by 5-8% in 2080.
Overall, climate change will place between 75 to 250 million people under a state of water stress by 2020 which could rise to 350-600 million by 2050. This will have knock-on effects on health, socio-economic conditions, food production and security.
Although there are uncertainties about population growth and climate change (and climate change variability) and the extent of their impacts, it is likely that they will place further stress on water sources. These factors may lead to water shortages as demand for freshwater cannot be met due to problems with access and the availability of water. Moreover, these problems may be even worse in areas of a shared river basin and so hydropolitics must address changes in population and climate to establish a fair agreement for water usage between stakeholders is made that will ensure water security.
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The blog is constrained by the limited number of entries - just 3 when at least 6 would have been expected by this stage of term. The second post is begins to develop your topic well but the latest post is a bit speculative in its linkages - these could have been better explained. I strongly encourage you to focus on your blog over the last few weeks of term and delve more deeply into a literature for this thematic area. You might find it helpful to focus on a specific hydropolitical context (basin or aquifer). Do try to promote some exchanges on your blog - they often clarify your thinking as you defend your assertions.
ReplyDeleteInteresting blog so far ! I have a few questions:
ReplyDelete- What measures can governments take to increase equity of sharing water between countries and to what extent this is possible given the current political context?
- Is this role limited only to government of countries concerned or could this involve power elites at various scales ie communities, NGO's , local/national gov etc?
Interesting blog so far ! I have a few questions:
ReplyDelete- What measures can governments take to increase equity of sharing water between countries and to what extent this is possible given the current political context?
- Is this role limited only to government of countries concerned or could this involve power elites at various scales ie communities, NGO's , local/national gov etc?
Hi Vasu! Nice blog post summarising the key effects of climate change on water resources in Africa! I was wondering if you feel like increasing urbanisation in Africa may also have a part to play in rising pressure on freshwater resources? As more people move to the cities, this could place more pressure on urban sources of water which could add another plane of complexity to the pressure climate change poses.
ReplyDelete